Before talks with Trump, Riyadh doubles down on terms for Israel ties
United States President Donald Trump has been touting the possibility of Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize ties with Israel, but it's unlikely to happen when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the White House this month. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, after decades of enmity, could significantly alter the political and security landscape in the Middle East, potentially bolstering US influence in the region.
Trump expressed hope last month that Saudi Arabia would soon join other Muslim countries in signing the 2020 Abraham Accords, normalizing ties with Israel (https://www.dawn.com/news/1949637). However, Riyadh has made it clear to Washington through diplomatic channels that its position remains unchanged: it will only sign up if there's an agreement on a roadmap to Palestinian statehood, according to two Gulf sources. This stance aims to avoid diplomatic missteps and ensure alignment between Saudi and US positions before any public statements are made.
The Crown Prince, widely known as MBS, is not expected to formalize ties in the near future without a credible pathway to a Palestinian state, according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer on the Middle East. MBS is likely to leverage his influence with Trump to seek more explicit and vocal support for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state, Panikoff suggests.
Trump's upbeat comments on the Abraham Accords
The upcoming visit is the Crown Prince's first to Washington since the 2018 killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of MBS, whose murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul sparked global outrage. MBS denied direct involvement.
The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco have already normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and Trump has indicated an expansion of the accords is imminent. He stated on November 5 that many countries are joining the Accords, and he hopes to welcome Saudi Arabia soon, without providing a timeline.
In a television interview on October 17, Trump expressed his desire to see Saudi Arabia and other countries join the Accords, emphasizing that when Saudi Arabia signs up, others will follow. However, the agreement signed by the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco sidestepped the issue of Palestinian statehood.
The two Gulf sources revealed that Riyadh has signaled to Washington that any move to recognize Israel must be part of a new framework, not just an extension of any existing deal. For Saudi Arabia, recognizing Israel is more than a diplomatic milestone; it's a deeply sensitive national security issue tied to resolving one of the region's oldest and most intractable conflicts.
The Arab public's mistrust of Israel remains high due to its military offensive during the war against Hamas in Gaza, despite a fragile ceasefire following Hamas's attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Saudi Foreign Ministry official Manal Radwan has called for a clear, time-bound Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the deployment of an international protection force, and the empowerment and return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, all essential steps for establishing a Palestinian state.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood, Saudi Arabia sees no immediate prospect of satisfying Trump's demand for normalization, the sources told Reuters. Progress on this front depends on concessions that neither Washington nor Israel is currently prepared to make, according to Saudi officials.
Trump and Crown Prince set to seal defense pact
Saudi officials are focused on steering the Trump-MBS meeting towards defense cooperation and investment, wary that the politically charged issue of normalizing ties with Israel could overshadow the agenda. The meeting is expected to seal a pivotal defense pact defining the scope of US military protection for the de facto ruler of the world's top oil exporter and cement America's military footprint in the Gulf. However, the prospective deal has been scaled back.
Two other Gulf sources and three Western diplomats stated that the defense deal falls short of the full, Congress-ratified treaty Riyadh once sought in exchange for the long-promised normalization of ties with Israel. The agreement, loosely modeled on a deal with Qatar, expands cooperation to include cutting-edge technology and defense.
Riyadh, according to the two Gulf sources, pushed for provisions allowing future US administrations to elevate the pact to a full treaty, ensuring continuity for a non-binding pact vulnerable to reversal by future presidents. David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute, suggests that while the deal might not be perfect, it serves as a stepping stone towards a full treaty.
The linkage between the defense pact, normalization with Israel, and Palestinian statehood has created a complex negotiating equation, pushing Riyadh and Washington to settle for a limited defense deal in the absence of progress on the other two tracks, the Gulf sources and Western diplomats said. This compromise could eventually evolve into a full treaty if normalization advances.
The threat from Iran, once a driving force behind Riyadh's pursuit of binding US guarantees, has receded due to strategic weakening over the past year by Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military infrastructure. The Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen have also suffered heavy blows. With the pressure from Iran easing, the appetite for a treaty requiring two-thirds congressional approval has diminished, especially in the absence of normalization with Israel.
The two Gulf sources indicated that such a pact would likely come with conditions, including curbs on Saudi Arabia's expanding economic and technology ties with China, complicating Riyadh's efforts to balance strategic autonomy with US security guarantees. The current deal would expand joint military exercises, deepen cooperation between US and Saudi defense firms, and include safeguards to limit Riyadh's military-industrial ties with China. It would also fast-track advanced US weapons sales to the kingdom, bypassing previous deal delays and political hurdles.
